MAHAMA'S SELF-CONFIDENCE OR NDC'S DILEMMA? EXAMINING THE VIABILITY OF NDC'S FLAGBEARER FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONS

Story by: Samuel K. Owusu

As the National Democratic Congress (NDC) prepares for its Presidential Primaries, former President John Dramani Mahama has expressed his confidence in his ability to defeat his opponents and in the long run, the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) if he becomes the party's flagbearer

According to former president John Dramani Mahama, he sees no viable candidate in the upcoming presidential primaries of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) other than himself.  "Those who are in the NDC Presidential race, If I was sure that they can stand against NPP and win the election, I would not have contested. But we cannot take the risk, because, in NPP, the only person they are afraid of the NDC is John Dramani Mahama. If they hear my name, they cannot sleep. So they have been going about to say, why don't you bring a fresh person. Why don't you bring a fresh person? Are you the one to tell us what to do? It is like Kotoko telling Hearts of Oak who should be their captain and goalkeeper in their next match. It is none of your business." Mahama said this to the NDC faithful in the Western Region when touting his credentials.

However, a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), on April 19, 2022, suggests that the NDC can only win the 2024 General Elections if Mahama is not the party's candidate.

Mahama's comment has elicited mixed reactions, with some questioning his ability to win against the incumbent NPP if given another chance. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) also recently published a report suggesting that the NDC could only win the 2024 elections if Mahama is not the flagbearer, which has added more fuel to the debate.

In the past, Mr Mahama has experienced both success and defeat in his political career. He narrowly won the 2012 elections but was heavily defeated in the 2016 elections by Nana Akufo-Addo. Similarly, in the 2020 elections, he lost again to Akufo-Addo by a significant margin. 

THE STATISTICS OF MAHAMA'S STRENGTH AGAINST THE NPP

In the 2012 election, the Incumbent president John Mahama was declared winner of the presidential contest with 5,574,761 representing 50.7% of the vote, just a few thousand votes over the threshold for avoiding a run-off election. Nana Akufo-Addo received 5,248,898, equivalent to 47.74%.

In the 2016 election, President Mahama receives the most embarrassing defeat in the history of the Fourth Republic. He managed to get 4,771,188 representing 44.53% while President Nana Akufo-Addo received 5,755,758 equal to 53.72% of the votes. 

In the 2020 election, President Nana Akufo-Addo got 6,730,587 which is equal to 51.30%. Mr Mahama receives 6,213,182 representing 47.36% of the vote. On two occasions, Mr John Dramani Mahama was heavily defeated

The EIU report further fuels the debate by suggesting that the NDC's chances of winning the 2024 elections may be improved if they choose a different flagbearer. This prediction is based on the belief that Mahama's past defeats suggest that he may not be able to win against the incumbent NPP and that a fresh face may have a better chance. However, it remains to be seen whether the NDC delegates will agree with this prediction and choose a different candidate for the primaries

These outcomes suggest that his claim of being the only viable candidate for the NDC may not be entirely true, as his past performances may not inspire confidence among some voters


PARTS OF THE 13-MEMBER KWESI BOTCHWEY'S COMMITTEE REPORT 

The committee included Prof Kwesi Botchwey Chairperson), Edward Doe Adjaho (former Speaker of Parliament), Kofi Totobi Quakyie, Nana Ato Dadzie, Kwame Peprah. The fact-finding reads:

  • John Mahama lost the elections and not the NDC 
  • President Mahama ignored the Akuse strategy which is no flamboyant campaign. No amorphous groups, etc 
  • Dr Omane Boama and Stan Dogbe convinced the President that he was more popular than the NDC ticket 
  • Dr Omane Boama and Stan Dogbe were shadow actors of the government 
  • The NDC Party lost its youth at the tertiary institutions 
  • Presidents inner circle were so intolerant that when you criticise the President, you are condemned
  • Some journalists were given V8 cars
  • The NDC was intolerant of the media and disrespected its own media
  • Disconnection between the government and the party as well as the disconnection between trhe party and the grassroots
  • NDC was its own enemy. Greedy, selfish, dismissive, and arrogance of power 
  • President Mahama lived a life of a movie star

The Kwesi Botchwey Committee's Recommendation


THE DILEMMA OF THE NDC: Can JOHN MAHAMA WIN THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Mahama's claim that he is the only viable candidate for the NDC has raised questions about the party's ability to field a strong candidate capable of winning the upcoming election. The former president's past electoral defeats suggest that he may not be the best candidate to challenge the NPP, despite his popularity within the party.

The NDC faces a difficult decision in selecting its flagbearer for the upcoming election. While Mahama may be a popular figure within the party, his electoral record raises doubts about his ability to win a national election. The party must balance the need for a strong candidate with the desire to satisfy its base, which remains loyal to Mahama.

Ultimately, the decision rests with the NDC delegates who will select the party's flagbearer in the coming weeks. It remains to be seen whether they will agree with Mahama's assertion that he is the only viable candidate for the party or whether they will heed the advice of the EIU and look for a fresh face to lead the NDC in the upcoming election.

The upcoming election will be a crucial test for the NDC, as it seeks to regain power from the NPP. The party must select a candidate who can appeal to a broad cross-section of Ghanaians and articulate a vision for the country's future. Whether that candidate is Mahama or someone else remains to be seen, but the decision will have far-reaching consequences for the NDC and the future of Ghanaian politics

In conclusion, the upcoming NDC presidential primaries are generating intense debate, with former president John Dramani Mahama's claim of being the only viable candidate causing mixed reactions. The EIU report adds another layer to the debate by suggesting that the NDC may have a better chance of winning if they choose a different flagbearer. Ultimately, the decision lies with the NDC delegates, who will have to choose the candidate they believe is best suited to win the 2024 elections. Only time will tell if the EIU prediction is accurate or if Mahama's claim of being the best candidate holds true


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Published by: Samuel Kwame Owusu (S.K.O)

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